Draft Day Decisions
by Tim Campbell
If you've been playing fantasy football for a while now then most of what I’m about to get into you've probably thought about at one point in time or another. For those of you who have never been to this type of rodeo before some if not all of this information will be useful. The key to having a successful fantasy football season is how you handle your draft. There is really no perfect way of going about it but there are some definite ways of making your life miserable so you need to have an idea of what you want for your draft plan. If you’re just a casual owner looking for a quick step to having a little edge then just scroll to the bottom.
First Things First, You Need Points
If there is only one thing you take away from reading my mind I want it to be this. If you want to succeed in your league then you need to know how your league scores. If you don’t know your scoring system you have no way of knowing how to value the players you are scouting. In a standard scoring league (4 points per passing td, 6 points for rushing/receiving td) it’s obvious that running backs and wide receivers have a higher value than quarterbacks, hence it makes virtually no sense to take Peyton Manning with the first pick. Yes there is a good possibility that he will outscore all other qbs this season but you will set yourself back in the positions that are weighted more. In a standard scoring league the top 7 maybe even 10 picks should all be rbs, after that there are a couple of wide-outs that could be considered before you start drafting qbs. The best way to determine when to switch from rb/wr to qb in your draft is to have a set of tiers for your players.
Tiering Positions-
Tiering positions is a simple way to set value to the players in your draft. It’s also the best way to compare different skill positions for their worth, this way you don’t reach early for a position you can wait on. A set of tiers for wide outs would look something like this.
Wide Receivers
[Tier 1] Randy Moss, Terrell Owens.
[Tier 2] Andre Johnson, Braylon Edwards, Marques Colston, Reggie Wayne.
Running Backs
[Tier 1] Ladainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Brian Westbrook
[Tier 2] Joseph Addai, Marion Barber,
Ok, now that you have a set of tiers for wide-outs and running backs you can use them as a guide for your draft. Basically you don't want to draft a second tier receiver if a first tier running back is available and vice versa. Remember, a first tier tight end is not as valuable as a first tier receiver. A first tier tight end is more comparable to a third tier receiver. Same as you defense and kickers; don’t over value them. All of these factors are reliant on your scoring system. If your league is favorable to quarterbacks (maybe 6 points for passing touchdowns) then you could take Tom Brady or Peyton Manning with the number 1 pick and it would be justified. The key is to not overvalue a player in one position and have it set you back in another.
Set Ways of Drafting -
Some owners go into a draft with one set way of drafting, such as rb, rb, rb. In their opinion it’s best to load up at one position, in this case running back, and work with a thinner talent pool at other positions. Depending on how the first three picks pan out for this owner he could just as easily sink as he could swim. One owner I know prefers to go with the set draft of rb, wr, qb, te. For 3 years this owner has drafted the same way and I can't say anything bad about it being that he has been in the playoffs all three years. He drafts the best available player at all 4 positions and fills in the remaining roster spots after. It's a decent philosophy unless you draft in a spot, say 7-10, where the chances of getting a true number one rb get slim. You probably would get one of the top 5 wide outs but on the way through the third round you won’t get Manning or Brady, probably not Drew Brees or Tony Romo, so again you will have a second tier player at that particular position as a starter. Paying for a te with a fourth round pick is expensive even if it's Antonio Gates or Jason Witten so again it's hard for me to endorse this method. My line of thinking is more fluid and I believe if you’re willing to put in a little extra effort before the draft it will pay off in the end.
Better Your Draft Value -
It’s really basic mathematics. If player (a) is worth an Andrew Jackson then don’t spend a Ben Franklin to get him. Let me explain. Far too often I see owners over valuing players in that they could have them in a later round or else they could draft a few other players at the same position that will put up better numbers. Darren McFadden is a highly coveted rb for some owners. I’ve seen McFadden go as early as the second round in mock drafts. Now, if Darren can find a way to be like Adrian Peterson and light up the scoreboard his rookie year then he’s worth the high value. It’s not likely. The reality is he is in a crowded backfield in
The Casual Owner-
If you’re not big into research but you want to at least stay competitive with the rest of your league then the best thing to do is go by what the experts on your website tell you. Almost every fantasy football website has a cheat-sheet for the draft so just follow what they have for player values. Need a running back? Take the top selection they have posted. Don’t draft a player just because you recognize his name. If you’re drafting at a buddies house make sure to pick up a reputable magazine and follow their player rankings. It doesn’t take much thought and you should have a decent squad to work with.
Just the Beginning-
So there you have it. Armed with the right information your ready to walk into your draft with confidence and walk out ahead of the pack. But that’s just the start of a winning fantasy season. Next week we’ll get into free-agency and why you have to stay alert on the wire. If you have any questions post them and I’ll help you however I can.
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